Oscars 2008: The Predictions

Throughout this past month, I have become increasingly interested in the outcome of the 2008 Academy Awards. For several years, I have labored under the opinion that the Academy Awards hold too much weight. I feel that the Viewer’s Choice Awards should hold more sway since without an audience, there would be no need for the movie in the first place. However, my opinion has changed a bit since I looked into the history of the Oscars.

For 80 years the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) have been bestowing awards on what they consider are the best of the best in the film world. The AMPAS is
composed of over 6,000 motion picture professionals. It is an honorary organization designed to foster cooperation, recognition of excellence and educational and technical progress within the motion picture industry. The AMPAS is broken into the following branches.

• Actors
• Art Directors
• Cinematographers
• Directors
• Documentary
• Executives
• Film Editors
• Makeup
• Music
• Producers
• Public Relations
• Short Films and Feature Animation
• Sound Branch
• Visual Effects
• Writers

“Oscar”, as the coveted statuette is fondly called, was originally designed by Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer art director, Cedric Gibbon and sculptor, George Stanley in 1928. Standing 13.5 inches tall and weighing in at 8.5 pounds, the statue depicts a knight holding a sword with the base being a reel of film with five spokes, which represent the five original branches of the AMPAS: Actors, Writers, Directors, Producers and Technicians. While the origin of the name “Oscar” is not completely known, there is a rumor that the statuette’s namesake is former Academy librarian, Margaret Herrick’s Uncle Oscar.

Winners are chosen by ballot vote from the Academy members. In order to vote for a film in a particular category, you must be a member of that branch of the AMPAS. For example, only members of the film editing branch may vote for the Best Achievement in Film Editing category. There is, of course, an exception to every rule. All member of the AMPAS are eligible to vote for the Best Picture nominee.

Before doing this research, I knew very little about how the Academy Awards worked and how the winners were decided. I still feel that People’s Choice should have more substance and credibility in the film world, however, I do appreciate that filmmakers are being recognized by their peers. And sometimes, that is the best validation a person can receive for their efforts.

While I have not seen all of the pictures nominated for Academy Awards this year, I have seen enough to have favorites for nearly every category and feel confident in making educated decisions for the others based on merit. I will highlight several of the ‘high’ interest awards here and make the complete list available for interested parties.

Actor in a Leading Role — My personal favorite is Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd. He has been nominated twice before for Finding Neverland and Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. And while he is probably considered the favorite for winning the Golden Globe earlier this year, he has some tough competition. Past winners Daniel Day-Lewis, George Clooney and Tommy Lee Jones are all nominated as well as Viggo Mortensen. Clooney’s performance in Michael Clayton was outstanding and while I haven’t seen either The Valley of Elah or Eastern Promises, I’ve heard great things about Jones and Mortensen. I think that the winner will most probably be Daniel Day-Lewis. His performance was spectacular and that movie was made to win Oscars.

Actress in a Leading Role — I think that the favorite for everyone is Ellen Page for Juno. Is is her first nomination and I’m hoping her first win. The other nominees are all wonderful actresses and even though I haven’t seen the other pictures in this category, I have a feeling that the award will go to veteran actress Cate Blanchett.

Directing — The nominees in the Acievement of Directing category are ones that I’m not overly familiar with. I have, however, seen 4 of the 5 nominees. Based on that knowledge, my favorite is the Coen Brothers for No Country for Old Men. I felt that the composure and direction of this film are what made it shine. THat being said, once again, I think that there’s a strong possibility that Paul Thomas Anderson, director of There Will be Blood, could take the category.

Original Song — While this typically isn’t one of the ‘bigger’ awards given, I felt compelled to make a comment concerning this category. Three out of the five nominees are songs composed for the Disney movie Enchanted. This film was a favorite of mine from this past year due to the like-ability factor. It was fun to watch. I also feel that the songs were some of the best songs written for a Disney movie in years. However, is it really necessary to nominate three songs from the same movie? My favorite from the movie is “That’s How You Know”. I will probably fall out of my seat if one of the other films wins for this category.

For a complete list of my predictions, follow the link below.

2008 Academy Award Prediction Ballot